Transforming Technical Treasury Yield Data into Trader-Ready Market Insights

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Strong Bearish Setup in Treasury Yields with Clear Trading Levels

5Y Treasury yields showing bearish momentum with clear trading setup. Target support at 4.243% with stop above 4.617%. Decreasing volatility improves risk/reward ratio. ✏️

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Model Projects Further Yield Decline Despite Oversold Conditions

Quantitative analysis points to yields reaching 4.15-4.25% range next month. Strong model accuracy supports the projection despite oversold conditions. ✏️

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Market Risk Indicators Signal Potential Treasury Rally

68% probability of yield decline during VIX spikes. Widening yield spread and recession concerns could accelerate the move lower. ✏️

Treasury Yield Technical Analysis Shows Bearish Momentum with Oversold Conditions

The 5-year Treasury yield is showing significant bearish momentum with the current yield at 4.334% as of February 7, 2025. The RSI-14 has dropped to 42.31, indicating a weakening trend but approaching oversold territory below 40.

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The 10-day momentum indicator shows a negative value of -0.094, confirming the downward pressure on yields. This represents a notable shift from the positive momentum seen in December 2024 when the momentum reached peaks above 0.30.

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Technical analysis reveals a significant shift from overbought conditions in late December 2024 (RSI above 80) to current weakening conditions with RSI trending down. The yield has fallen from recent highs of 4.617% in mid-January to current levels, marking a correction of approximately 28 basis points.

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5-Year Treasury Yield price movement with RSI indicator showing recent bearish momentum and key RSI levels

Volatility Analysis Reveals Increasing Market Stability with Key Support/Resistance Levels

The 5-year Treasury yield shows decreasing volatility with the 20-day volatility dropping from 2.34% to 1.96% over the past month, indicating increasing market stability. Key resistance level established at 4.617% (20-day high) with support forming around 4.243% (20-day low).

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Daily returns analysis shows increased negative momentum with recent daily returns ranging from -2.30% to +1.42%. The market has experienced more frequent negative daily returns in the past two weeks, suggesting growing bearish sentiment.

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Technical support and resistance analysis identifies a trading range between 4.243% and 4.617%, with current price action suggesting a test of support levels. The narrowing volatility band (from 0.108 to 0.085) indicates potential consolidation phase.

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Treasury yield price movement with volatility bands and key support/resistance levels

Moving Average Analysis Reveals Critical Price Action and Breakout Points

The 5-year Treasury yield has shown a bearish crossover with the 20-day moving average (4.399%) crossing below the 50-day moving average (4.319%), indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The current yield at 4.334% is trading between these key moving averages, suggesting a period of price consolidation.

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A significant breakdown point occurred after reaching the recent high of 4.617% on January 13, 2025, with the yield falling sharply below both moving averages. This breakdown was followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish trend structure.

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The moving average analysis suggests strong support around 4.243% (recent low) and resistance at 4.617% (recent high). The narrowing spread between the moving averages (from 0.130% to 0.080%) indicates decreasing volatility and potential trend stabilization.

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